Lock him up has majority support
With Michael Cohen starting to testify today I suspect this might be tipping point for the self confessed pussy grabber. TSE
Why cutting interest rates will be no panacea for the Tories
There are some Tories who think an interest rate cut will help them in the polls as mortgage costs come down yet this polling points to the exact opposite happening, I think there’s a couple of things driving this. Firstly if mortgage costs do come down a bit they will still be substantially higher than when the perpetuator of an antisemitic trope Liz Truss became Prime Minister so the financial hurt is still real. Secondly as we can see with…
Solarpunk
INTRODUCTION What happens if the Greens win? I mean not just win elections, but win comprehensively, so much so that there’s no need for a Green party anymore. What does society look like in this scenario? To answer that question we need to look at Green’s imagined futures. There are many such and include anarcho-primitivism and (rarely) ecofascism, but the most attractive is arguably Solarpunk. So let’s look at that. SOLARPUNK Solarpunk is a literary and artistic movement, not a…
Lessons from history
I like this analysis by Tom Calver of The Times. My key takeaway is from the final tweet is how accurate the polls are two weeks before the election. The other key takeaway is the polls always narrow once the election is called which is something punters and everybody else should remember lest it lead to panic/pessimism/false optimism depending on your view point. Betting on a hung parliament now appears to be a courageous decision in the Yes, Prime Minister…
The Eurovision open thread
Since the voting system changed I haven’t bet heavily on Eurovision other than to occasionally lay Le Royaume-Uni. I cannot see any value on current prices but I will enjoy the annual bit of European unity and cultural enrichment. TSE
Guilt and Shame
I am an adoptive father, twice over. Like all adopters, I have been mandated/encouraged/enabled to undertake a range of training and education on how the minds of children develop and work, and how trauma and neglect can affect that. Many adopters say lightheartedly that we are lucky, because all parents should have access to what we learn. A lightbulb moment for me was encountering the concept of the different mindsets of guilt and shame. I feel strongly that understanding this…
The Swinney slump continues
This is the second poll since Humza Yousaf’s announcement that he was going to resign and it is another poll showing the SNP falling back in the polls. I would wait until we have first poll conducted entirely after John Swinney became First Minister before making definitive pronouncements. I would also consider the Holyrood polls a bit of an irrelevance at the moment, the result of the Westminster election in any direction could alter voting intentions there particularly if the…
We have the first constituency betting market
I have been bemoaning for months about the lack of constituency markets but we do have the first constituency market for the next election, after a fashion. Bob Blackman is defending a majority of 8,170 over Labour and I struggle to see how we will hold on if the current polls are close to being accurate but people who know the seat better than I might be able to shed if the 3/1 is value. Sadly Ladbrokes do not offer…